Is Sam Laporta Sam Laffordable?
Sam LaPorta is shaping out to be a semi-controversial figure in fantasy drafts this year. I say “semi” because while there is no shortage of agreement on his talent level, people seemed to be mixed about where he should be getting drafted. With an ADP (average draft position) around the 2-3 round turn, some seem to think it’s a lock and the fact that you could potentially score 2 elite position players and then draft a big TE positional advantage is a no brainer.
Others point to the statistical finishes in the TE rankings last year as an argument against, saying that while he had a historic rookie season the young Lions star finished within a 1fppg avg of the other 4 top TEs. With top finishers like George Kittle, Trey McBride and Mark Andrews going 1-3 rounds later, it seems foolish to some to take him early when there are still high level RBs and WRs at that ADP. What I will attempt to do here is look at the data and examine the facts around drafting elite TEs, to see which case is stronger. Remember at the end of the day, anything can happen in the NFL, Sam Laporta could take up badminton and leave the NFL for all we know, but assuming he’s here to stay let’s see what history tells us about the fantasy TE position.
The “Elite TE Threshold”
First off, I would like to establish a threshold, that being that 14ppg seems to be the line between very good and elite TE production. I chose 14 because besides an outlier season the top TEs have always (at least since 2001) bottomed out at 14fppg. Even when the elite guys do exceed 14, the next guys are almost always hitting or getting just below it. I looked at TE PPR numbers (Minimum 10 games played) since 2001 and tracked what years had 1 or more TEs finishing at 15fppg or higher; 2 guys finished above 15fppg in 9 of the last 22 seasons, with 0 finishes above 15fppg in 6 of them. There were 4 seasons each of 1 or 3 finishers above 15fppg. There has not been more than 3 guys finishing above 15ppg in a single season since 2001.
Examining 2 man years as they are the most likely to occur historically, the average point differential between the top 2 fppg TEs and the next guy is 39 points, however it shoots up to 49.6 points if you do not count guys who had shorter seasons and thus finished with less overall points than the next 3rd place fppg guy. The average fppg finish for these top TEs is 16.9, with the 3rd place guy on average having between 12-14fppg. Out of these 9 seasons we are examining, only one guy (Travis Kelce 2020) averaged 20 or more.
How RBs and WRs Compare
Next, in order to ascertain value relative to other positions, I took that 16.9fppg average and the 14fppg threshold, and I looked at what was the average highest finish that a WR or RB had hitting those numbers. At 16.9, on average you had the WR10 finish with that or less and for RBs it was the RB9.4. At 14fppg on average you had the WR23.5 finishing with that or less and for RBs the RB18.4. Overall, the 14fppg WRs stay pretty steady in the mid WR20s while the top end 16.9 guys fluctuate more heavily, going as low as WR5 and as high as WR15. RBs were the opposite, with the 16.9 guys staying steady at RB7-10 with one outlying RB13, while the 14fppg RBs fluctuated between RB15 and RB22.
Examining ADPS
Now we are going to switch gears a tad and check the average ADP of these WR and RB ranks in the last 10 years (including this season). WR10 the average ADP comes out to 25.5 while for WR23.5 (rounded down to WR23) it is 55.13. A fascinating thing to note, the WR10 was bouncing around the early twenties, got VERY cheap in 2020 at 31.8, then started to get slightly more expensive the next two years before skyrocketing about 10 spots higher to 17 and 18 in ‘23 and ‘24 respectively. Meanwhile, the WR23.5 was fairly consistently getting cheaper every year, but this year it did see a big jump from the mid 50s to an ADP of 45.
The RBs ADPs were very interesting to see, over the last decade the RB9.4 (rounded down to RB9) was 18.02 on avg, and the RB18.4 (rounded down to RB18) was 41.8 on avg. Of course, both ranks more expensive than their respective WR groups, but what is fascinating is (contrary to the WRs) both progressively got more expensive over the years…until last season. RB9s went from ADPs of 11.5, 11.6 and 13.1 down to 26 and 19 in ‘23 and ‘24, while RB18s saw a rise from 33.1 and 34.1 to 47 and 51. As most will probably agree, this is most likely because WRs are rising in popularity for fantasy owners in recent years due to the league becoming a much more pass heavy league on top of the rise in RB committees.
Similar Breakout Rookie TEs
Out of curiosity, I thought to check out similar rookie TEs and see how they finished their sophomore year, for simplicity’s sake I looked at the company he shares with his rookie records, that being TE Keith Jackson whose reception record he broke, as well as Rob Gronkowski and Mike Ditka who are the only other TEs with double digit TD rookie seasons. Keith Jackson flat out never even came close to his rookie year production outside of an impressive 10 TD 1996 season, although he still logged only half the receptions he had his rookie year. On the opposite end, Rob Gronkowski had his best year of his career his sophomore season, finishing with 1300 yards, 17 TDs and a 20.7fppg. Ditka was basically in the middle of these two, regressing from 12 to 5 TDs but otherwise nearly matching his production.
Point Drop Off
Finally, I wanted to examine the point drop-off between the positions, so I checked out the projected points for this year to see where a big gap begins for each position relative to the ADP. The TE position is tight at the top, with the top 6 guys all being projected within about 4 points of each other, with Kelce having the highest projection at 205 and Kincaid the lowest of the 6 at 186.5. There is currently a 27 spot difference in ADP between these two, 37 spot difference between Kelce and Kittle (Kittle is projected 2 points higher than Kincaid). After that there is about a 10 point drop to Pitts, then another 10 point drop to Ferguson (ADP 69 and 91 respectively) the next 9 guys after Ferguson are all within 4-6 points of each other before a massive drop from a 136 projection to 108. That 108 is Cade Otton at ADP 200.
At WR, you do not see a total points projection of 205 or lower until Terry McLaurin at ADP 72. The closest ADP to Laporta is Collins with a projection of 231. There are 30 WRs in between those two and the projections are a steady decline with no more than 0-7 points of separation between two guys. RB is a bit more scarce, Achane being the closest ADP RB (23) with a projection of 225, we don’t see a projection of 205 or lower until Kamara at ADP 44, a 21 spot difference. There are only 4 guys in between these two. RBs have a similar steady decline in points to WR until you get to the 80s in ADP, where it suddenly goes 152, 142, 137, 125, 118, 111 (4 times), 108 then 98. That 152 is Nick Chubb, there are only 11 guys in between him and Kamara. Chubbs ADP is 81 at the moment.
What this means essentially is, while WRs are projected to be very deep and consistent, RBs have a very similar “points cliff” to TEs, and while TEs have less players in the mid to upper echelon (17 guys total before the drop to Cade Otton, as opposed to 28 RBs before the Chubb drop) the RB drop happens in 80s of ADP, while the TEs stretch into the double digit rounds. Also to note from this; Kittle, Kincaid, McBride and Andrews are all being drafted around or closer to WRs/RBs who are projected a similar points finish, while Laporta and Kelce are being drafted around WRs and RBs who outdo their projections by 20-30 points. However, if we are to assume that they will at least hit their 14fppg threshold, they are actually about matching the projected points of those around them. What you gather from that depends on how you personally view Laporta, you could argue 14 is his floor and he can’t do any worse however another could argue the WRs and RBs around him will most likely also outdo their projections thus making his floor a bad value at that ADP. If you’re someone who believes one of the later guys can match that production, it shouldn’t matter much what you think Laporta does.
Conclusion
Sam Laporta is being drafted at his ceiling, but that may not be a bad thing. There are 3 things that are concrete from this research; TE advantage is real however the top end of the position has not been this deep in years, WR is the deepest position, RBs are scarce. The TE drop-off is harsh however with other top projected TEs going as late as the 5th round, I think you stand to gather more value by shooting for a Kittle or Kincaid instead. On top of this your mid table TEs fall deep into the late rounds of the draft. I definitely believe if you are going with a Hero RB strategy, or if you are in a keeper league where you have 1 or 2 strong RB keepers, you could definitely take a shot at Laporta. Kelce feels more comforting at that ADP because we have seen him put up high end WR numbers at the TE spot. We haven’t seen that from Laporta, we saw a massively impressive rookie season, with a probably unsustainable amount of TDs, from a guy in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed that likes to run the ball the closer they get to the goal line.
This isn’t Laporta hate, but the RB drop-off is equally as massive and happens far sooner than the TEs, after your elite 6 TEs you do not see another massive drop-off until you get into the 100s of ADP. If you go WR/WR the first 2 rounds, I am not seeing how you can justify taking a chance on Laporta at his current ADP. Even if you have a good early RB and take the chance on Laporta, if he repeats last year’s numbers you missed, it’s a bad value pick. Ultimately, Laporta is a pick of faith at his current ADP. You have full fledged faith in him taking another step forward and hitting his absolute ceiling so you smash that draft button. Anyone who’s looking at it from a data driven approach though, I am not sure how you can justify it with raw numbers. It is still early though, so maybe there is some course correction coming, not to mention the injury news that dropped as I wrote this may also help to make Sam Laporta, a little more Sam Laffordable.
