Let’s talk about Christian Kirk‘s fantasy value for a minute.
I need to be fully transparent here, I am a Christian Kirk guy. I’ve had him every year since his last year in Arizona, and I could not be any higher on him than I am this year. Kirk is stepping into the year as the Jaguars official number 1 WR option. I stress “official” because, really, it feels like he was the number 1 option the past two years. Even behind Calvin Ridley, he was putting up monster stats for his draft spot and was on pace to improve his yearly stats for the 4th year in a row!
Kirk has been a top notch flex option for a few years now, and in 2022 he finished as the WR12, putting up over 1100 yards on 7.8 receptions a game. I believed he was poised to fully break out in 2023. A Calvin Ridley return and an injury put that on the back burner, but he was still on pace to put up over 1200 yards to outdo his 2022 finish, and at the time of his injury he was doing it on only 6.5 receptions a game.
This guy is a certified DOG, and there may be naysayers that think he can’t be a true number 1. I don’t think anything can be farther from the truth. This is a guy who is only one year removed from a WR12 finish, and was WR19 when he went down last year, he’s being drafted as low as WR30! The disrespect is astounding!
What are the concerns?
A common concern for Kirk is Evan Engram who had a stellar season last year. I’m sorry, let me rephrase that. A common concern for Kirk is Evan Engram who had a stellar season last year, after Christian Kirk went down with injury! In fact, Engram only broke 13 PPR points once until which week? Week 13, the Kirk injury week. After that week, the tight end’s points per game in PPR went; 23.2, 32.5, 6.8, 17.5, 12, 23.9, respectively. This injury clearly heavily weighed Engram’s stats to the upside.
It is already silly to worry about a TE not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews taking away play from a top end receiver, which makes it even sillier when you check the historical record. Engram is a nice talent who will have his boom games, he is not a threat. Gabe Davis is a certified bu– I mean “roleplayer”, so he is not a serious threat to Kirk’s production either. In fact he should help tremendously, his one golden trait is he can be a genuine deep ball threat, stretching the field for Kirk to make plays!
Don’t go anywhere, let me convince you
In case you are not sold, let me school you on some more Kirk goodness; he actually averaged a higher target share than Ridley when they were both healthy. He has finished with less than 12 y/r only once in his career, he has played at least 12 games every year of his career, and he boasted a 30% air yard share when healthy last year.
As mentioned earlier he has improved his stats consistently year over year in his career. I’m not sure what else I could do to convince you. He’s not a second round pick, he absolutely doesn’t need to be, but this is a guy you can feel comfortable drafting a little earlier than his ADP. Guys like Zay Flowers and Malik Nabers being ranked ahead of him is a joke in my opinion. Other people in his range are older WRs like Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen, who are proven commodities but may not be in the best situation or are getting up there in age. I would much rather have the infinitely higher ceiling of Kirk than either of them.
The only picks I would consider over Kirk in his ADP range are guys like George Pickens and Kenneth Walker, who have equally high ceilings, with Pickens arguably having a lower floor! Obviously though, if you are starving for a running back in the 4/5th round, Walker is the better choice.
Conclusion
In conclusion, my best argument for Kirk is that he is a floor guy, meaning he will reliably produce, at the very least, to his ADPs standards. That is probably the best argument for taking him in the 4th, as these middle rounds are often looked at as ceiling picks, you get your reliable performers the first 3 rounds, then the next 3 rounds you shoot for guys who can hopefully jump into those top tiers during the season.
Kirk provides the potential of leaping back into a top 12 or even a top 8 tier of WR, while confidently being expected to at least produce at a WR20 level, 10 spots above what he is currently projected. Fantasy is about value, getting the most for the least. I dub Christian Kirk Mr. Value, and I will die on this hill! On top of that hill, scattered about my corpse, will be multiple fantasy trophies, courtesy of Mr. Christian Kirk.
