Bounce Back Candidates For Fantasy Football 2024

Every year, we have NFL players who change teams, come back from injuries or just simply underperform the year prior and we look for reasons that they could potentially bounce back. A majority of these guys seem to have low ADP’s and could potentially become value picks at their draft position.

When I looked through the data for reasons why players seemed to bounce back, the two factors that kept appearing were coaching changes and injury-related situations from the year prior. What does this mean?

Well, when you look at 2023, one of your biggest bounce back candidates was Keenan Allen, who was injured and in a somewhat poor offense in 2022 ran by Joe Lombardi. Coming back from injury and paired with new Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore in 2023, it was a recipe for value at his ADP in 2023 which was around 3rd round pick territory. Allen went on to lead a top 10 fantasy finish and finished WR3 in terms of points per game.

Enough about the 2023 season. The point is that if you look through history, a change of scenery or coaching and/or coming back from injury is usually what leads to a bounce back finish for a fantasy football player. After looking through the player lists and rankings for 2024, here’s what I came up with for my best bounce back candidates in fantasy football this year.

1. Bryce Young, QB – Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales, the QB whisperer as we call him, leaves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and heads to Carolina to lead Bryce Young and the Panthers. Bryce Young was disappointing to say the least in 2023 and is looking for a rebound year.

The Panthers added Diontae Johnson through a trade with the Steelers and Xavier Legette through the 2024 NFL draft with the 32nd pick. With veteran Adam Thielen still on the roster, it’s safe to say the Panthers added WR depth to give the 2nd year quarterback every opportunity to excel in his 2nd year.

With all of that being said, the most important move they made is the coaching change. Frank Reich‘s philosophies may just be outdated in the new passing era of the NFL. Everywhere Dave Canales has been, he seems to transform the quarterback that he works with.

Mayfield, now on his fourth team in six seasons, found his stride again with Canales calling the shots. The 2018 first overall draft pick hit a career-high, completing 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions.

In 2022, Canales played a big role in transforming Geno Smith from a journeyman into an All-Pro with the Seahawks. Smith led the league with a 69.8% completion rate and put up career-best numbers with 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, earning him the NFL Comeback Player of the Year title.

On the other hand, Young had a tough time in his 16 starts, finishing with a 73.7 passer rating, which ranked him 34th in the league. His Panthers ended the season 2-15, and they were shut out in their final two regular-season games. By adding a true WR1 and other threats on the outside and finding a high IQ, offensive mind to lead the charge, the Panthers have gone in on Bryce Young and this may be his last chance to figure it out.

We shall see if the new head coach is truly the QB whisperer.

2. James Conner, RB – Arizona Cardinals

I know a concern is the NFC West and many still see the Cardinals as the weakest team in their division, trailing behind the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. But I don’t think they’re destined for another last-place finish or a 4-13 record. The 49ers defense is great but the Rams and Seahawks, not so much. And playing them twice a year is something I like in this situation.

Even though James Conner missed four games last year, he still managed to rack up 1,040 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. In fact, when Kyler Murray returned in Week 10 the Cardinals got off to a slow start but finished the year really strong as well as James Conner.

Conner’s PPR points in his final 5 games with Kyler Murray at QB –

• 22.5
• 17.9
• 22.2
• 26.3
• 30.4

Overall, I like Conner, and I like his situation. Kyler Murray is healthy. And when the running back was healthy, he was a top-10 back last year, averaging 83 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, and scoring 9 touchdowns in the 12 games he played in full.

If your concern is his health, take newly drafted RB Trey Benson as a handcuff to him.

Conner is in a contract year and will be playing every opportunity he can. I also believe that if he is healthy, he will see a majority of the work and be the workhorse for the Arizona Cardinals.

3. Tee Higgins, WR – Cincinatti Bengals

Tee Higgins is entering a contract year, and he’s a player to watch. Last season, it was surprising to see Higgins finish as the WR51, especially given his role in one of the league’s top passing offenses. But Joe Burrow‘s struggles and then wrist injury that sidelined him for the regular season played a huge part in that.

Now, Higgins is back with the Bengals after signing his franchise tag. He’s trying to fight for a new contract with Cincinnati and also to prove himself to potential future teams. Higgins has the potential to be a solid WR2 with WR1 upside if he gets the right opportunities.

He’s being drafted around WR26-30 which is overall 55-65, depending on what draft board you look at. When Burrow and Higgins are healthy, there’s no doubt he can hold a top 20 finish. He finished as the following from 2020-2022:

• 2022 – WR18
• 2021 – WR24
• 2020 – WR28

With Joe Burrow looking healthy in the Bengals’ offseason program, Higgins could bounce back in a big way this season. It feels like at the worst, you are drafting him at his absolute floor if all are healthy.

4. Jonathan Taylor, RB – Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor had a weird year last year as he held out for part of camps due to requesting a trade and a new contract. The Colts decided to carry these talks into the season where they eventually gave Taylor a 3 Year, $42,000,000 contract on October 7, 2023.

While all of this was happening, running back Zack Moss was off to a fantastic start last year. When he landed as the starter on the depth chart, Zack Moss’ first 5 games went like this in PPR scoring:

• 20.7
• 22.5
• 9.0
• 33.5
• 17.9

Jonathan Taylor returned in week 5 but was given limited opportunity as he was just simply not in game shape and not ready to handle an entire workload. The split backfield hindered Taylor’s fantasy performances as new head coach Shane Steichen was not ready to hand over the keys to the backfield yet.

But, as the season progressed, we saw the star running back start to recapture his form. From weeks 7 to 12, he averaged over 17 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring formats. He averaged over 17 touches per game and seemed to be back in full force. An eventual injury put a stop to that and his season was halted, until he returned in week 16 to close out the year with 3 straight double digit fantasy performances.

With Anthony Richardson healthy, Zack Moss in Cincinatti, a happy and healthy Jonathan Taylor is certainly ready to take over the backfield. Shane Steichen is a great offensive minded head coach and will certainly look to use his star running back as much as possible, as he did when he got in form last year.

Jonathan Taylor could be in for a top 5-7 fantasy finish if he stays healthy this year.

5. Joe Burrow, QB – Cincinatti Bengals

I know, I know. Two Cincinatti Bengals on the same list, I apologize. I’m very high on this team this year because we have seen the type of offense they can become when Joe Burrow stays healthy. The star quarterback is currently being drafted as the QB7 or overall 60 ish, depending what draft board you look at.

I think a 5th-6th round Joe Burrow is a steal for a QB who finished as the QB4 in 2022 when he and his wide receivers were healthy. Last year, with the injury in training camp he was off to a slow start, and then once they started to develop their offensive rhythm, he suffered a wrist injury which turned out to end his year.

He averaged 15.5 FPPG which is below expectations for him but we can come to the realization that he was playing in the beginning of the year with the calf injury he suffered in training camp and then a few weeks with the wrist injury.

I expect the Bengals to return to form this year and with all offensive pieces healthy heading into the year, there’s no doubt in my mind that Joe Burrow can recapture his top 5 QB play and return value at his current ADP.

6. Chris Godwin, WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you want a player with a solid floor who has a real shot at entering the top 20 at his position if he scores some touchdowns, Chris Godwin is your guy. Even in a somewhat down year, he still managed to be a top-30 fantasy WR in PPR, racking up 130 targets, over 80 receptions, and more than 1,000 receiving yards.

Once they decided to move Godwin back in the slot some last year, he started to play his best ball. The Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen has already come out and said that they would use him more in the slot this year, where he has seen the best production in his career.

He played just 1/3 of his offensive snaps out of the slot last year which produced his lowest fantasy points per game over the last 5 years at 12.3, even with a career year from Baker Mayfield.

Coen brings a new offensive mind to the Bucs coming from the Los Angeles Rams coaching tree under Sean McVay. He plans to use more motion and sets that will potentially free up Godwin and allow him to get back to form he had in years past.

He’s being drafted as the consensus WR34 and overall 77 in PPR drafts. His last few year finishes look like this:

• 2023 – WR28
• 2022 – WR19
• 2021 – WR15

Once again, this feels like a guy that you are drafting at their absolute floor. He could return some serious value this year at his current ADP.