Advice from a Trade Lord
Let me start off by specifying, a trade lord is someone who lives for the trade. There are years where we wrap up the draft and I immediately start sending out feelers. I love it, trading is the most fun part of fantasy football in my eyes. When I get that DM; “Hey I am interested in X player” my eyes light up and the brain starts turning. However, I see all over reddit, twitter and the rest of the fantasy internet people struggling to find value, close deals or just straight up making ridiculous decisions unknowingly.
Let me try to lend a hand to those of you who may find struggles with the art of trading. Here is some advice on trading that I apply to myself and the trades I make. Most of it will apply to Dynasty but there is some useful info for redrafts and keepers as well. Perhaps this advice will be something you’ve heard before, but hopefully at least one of these points will help the way you view trading in fantasy!
Know Your League mates
Wow very milquetoast start to this article eh? However you don’t need to develop a history with all your brand new league mates to understand them. Simple information like favorite team, fantasy history or even age can help you understand a person’s mindset. An Eagles fan may overvalue guys like DeVonta Smith and undervalue Dak Prescott. Someone who wins a lot of fantasy leagues probably drafts well and won’t be looking to move any players. Older aged owners, in my anecdotal experience, value proven vets and household names over up and comers or talents who aren’t media darlings.
On top of these surface level assumptions, be active. Talk to your mates, chat shit and discuss non fantasy related football topics. Try to make gameday plans with them. Then of course, as time goes on, you will better understand your league mates tendencies, fears, desires etc,and this information will help you close deals with even the most stubborn of them.
Do NOT Try to Win the Trade
Perhaps another obvious one, but you would be surprised how many people take this into consideration. There are 3 outcomes after a trade; there is an immediate winner, the owner everyone feels won as soon as the trade is accepted. There is the long term winner, the owner who everyone feels won the trade after the season plays out or, in the case of dynasty, maybe a couple of years. Finally there is the even steven trade, where everyone feels the trade was equally beneficial for both sides.
None of these outcomes matter!
There are two things and two things only that matters in a fantasy football trade; “Does this trade make my situation better?” and “Does my opponent believe this trade makes his situation better?” I specify ‘believe’ for your opponent because, what your opponent believes helps their team, you may think is a bad move. You have to try to think of their team through their lens. I made a trade in my dynasty league that was Stefon Diggs for Amon Ra and a first round pick.
This was the offseason before the 2023 season. I loved Stefon Diggs, I did not think Diggs was even close to no longer being an elite player. However, it is a dynasty. I knew my opponent was a guy who would value Diggs’ immediate Top 5 value over Amon Ra’s potential top 5 value. I took a shot and made the trade. Everyone deemed him the winner immediately, why would I sell Diggs for so little they said!
The person who made that trade still talks about how much he regrets it. However, he shouldn’t. He made a call that he thought would immediately improve his odds of winning, and it didn’t pan out. Most fantasy decisions will not work out. He could not have predicted a new OC coming into Buffalo and cutting Diggs targets in near half. He may bounce back this year with the Texans, then the trade feels less bad. Either way, you cannot let decisions eat away at you, which brings me to my next point.
Live With Your Decisions
I could have done these two as one conjoined point because they really do go hand in hand. Live with your decisions. Do not let past failures dictate future trades. That doesn’t mean don’t learn from them, but if the owner I made that trade with refuses to make a big trade like that again in the future he is only hurting himself. In fact, don’t just live with them, stand by them.
Any idiot can look back at the last 20 Super Bowl winners and say “In retrospect, it was obvious these guys were gonna win.” when in reality it is almost never that obvious in the moment. It is easy for others to point at him and say he made a stupid decision, but none of those finger pointers are capable of predicting when a player will fall off, so why should they degenerate him for not being able to either?
Likewise none of them can predict when a guy will become top 5. 95% of guys don’t become top 5 talents, most of the time trading an up and comer for a current top 5 guy will be the right decision. You don’t make trades based on past results, you make trades based on what you determine the results will be. If you’re wrong, stand by it.
Prioritize Need on Both Sides
Maybe you really like Kyren Williams, and you need a RB. That is awesome, a guy you like fills a need. However, you only realistically have WRs to trade away, and the Kyren owner is deep at WR. So accept that you’re not getting Kyren. Maybe you aren’t that big on Kenneth Walker. Doesn’t matter, Walker is objectively a good RB, young and arguably has some more room to grow.
Maybe you aren’t crazy about the Seattle offense. Doesn’t matter. We don’t live in an ideal world, you have to have an analytical approach to players. It is better to fill a need with a player you aren’t crazy about than to overpay for someone you really want. I needed a bench RB this year, I got Tyjae Spears for Khalil Shakir. I like Tyjae, but if I had to choose between the two I would probably pick Shakir. Doesn’t matter, I needed an RB, he needed a WR. Even if Shakir is great, he is probably riding my bench all year, so I made the trade.
You also need to prioritize needs with your opponents, do not offer WRs to the guy with a deep WR room. You have to work with what is in front of you and not what is most ideal to you. This may be obvious but, with some of the trades I have been offered over the years, I think some of you would be surprised how many people do not truly understand this.
You should be able to explain how every trade you offer helps your opponent, and even if they don’t agree they should be able to see your reasoning. In fact whenever I get a trade I deem to be ridiculous, I always tell my opponent; “If you can tell me how this trade helps me, I will accept it.” Most of the time they just rescind the offer. Be able to explain yourself, it will help long term too, making you more palatable for people who are scared to trade and thus widening your options.
Have a Strategy
This mostly applies to Dynasty, but there are situational strategies in redrafts. Like if you are a playoff team, and a team on the cusp suffers a star injury, if that star is due back for playoffs and you know you can weather that injury until then, make a move! Likewise from the other side, if your star gets hurt as you make a push to sneak into the postseason, trade him! Sure it sucks to not have him in the postseason but it won’t matter at all if you don’t even make it. In fantasy, you’re not playing for the championship, you’re playing for the playoffs. Once you get into the playoffs it is a dice roll.
In Dynasty, do not half ass your decision making. You are either rebuilding or competing, and you need to commit one way or the other. Being stuck in limbo is the worst, you risk getting stuck with aging players of no value so when you are ready to rebuild you can’t get any decent returns then you leave and ruin the league. Now if in the midst of your rebuild, you hit on a couple guys in one year and you start winning games, don’t feel obligated to stay in the rebuild.
The goal in Dynasty is to win ASAP, start making a move to shore up your roster and solidify your odds. If you are competing, take into consideration your team age. My team consists of guys like Josh Allen, CeeDee, Bijan, LaPorta, aka a very young team. So if i end up with an opportunity to trade a few years of draft capital for a big name this season, I may do it, because while you can’t predict the NFL, my next 3 years look promising. As long as I stay good, those picks are worthless to me anyhow. If things fall apart, I have a lot of good assets to recoup my picks.
Value Draft Capital, but be Flexible
Draft picks are very valuable, but they are never better than the proven thing. This year is a good example, MHJ is a highly touted prospect, but I would argue if someone is offering you proven players for this single pick, it should be a no brainer, especially if they improve or fill out your roster immediately. Rookies fail more often than not, if you believe in a guy by all means hold firm, it is important to trust your research and to take chances. However, always be willing to deal your unrealized capital.
On the opposite end, do not overvalue draft capital being offered to you. Giving away proven, still productive older players should always net you younger player + pick at least. I’m personally only willing to trade Flex or bench players for picks straight up, and even then I would prefer a promising youngster to take a shot on instead. I saw a trade on reddit recently that was Garret Wilson for a ‘25 and ‘26 first and a ‘26 third. This is a horrible trade in my opinion.
Unless your WR room is so good that Garret Wilson is a flex or lower, you should be getting back players with a pick. You now gave another team a potential top 10, hell top 8 guy and you got one extra shot at the lottery for the next two years in return. The odds you draft a Garret Wilson with those picks is not likely, as that team is probably a contender. Even, let’s say, Josh Downs and a first is better, we’ve seen some actual potential from Downs, and you still get that extra shot at a future rookie.
Hold The Line
You may find yourself in a desperate situation that may warrant an overpay, and there is no catch all advice for those situations. That is on you to decide what is worth it for your team. With trades in general though, especially if someone is asking you for a guy, you need to stand firm. Come to a reasonable floor you would move the player or capital for, and stick to it. If they want to play hardball, play harder ball. Go to the start of the season, go to week 5, hell take it all the way to the final second before the trade deadline.
It is better to miss out on a trade than to give more than you believe you should. Not to mention, if someone else is pushing you for a trade, they need it more than you. You should always be willing to walk away from not just fantasy trades but any negotiation. The first one to show weakness if in a losing position, and you will end up being the guy everyone takes advantage of if you’re never willing to walk away. A trade is supposed to help your team, and if what they are asking won’t help your team, never do it, no matter how good the player.
