Looking at who is a Must Have and Must Not! (PPR and 0.5 PPR Format)
Round 1:
Draft; Breece Hall, RB NYJ
Round 1 is obviously the “Must Have” round, there really isn’t a player here you should “avoid”. However, Breece Hall sticks out among even the others in this tier and it really isn’t a secret anymore. I have seen him ranked as low as 8th but do not expect that to stay, he is already creeping up and the closer we get to the season the closer he will get to the top 5 picks.
Every TikTok, youtuber and analyst you listen to has already beaten this horse to death, we all know what he did with a putrid offense and fresh off an ACL injury last year. He’s now two years removed from the injury and no longer set up behind the worst QB to ever touch an NFL football. Unless you have the first couple of picks, you need to be smashing the draft button on Breece Hall!
Dodge; Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
I need to come clean, I don’t actually think you should avoid drafting Ja’Marr Chase, obviously. There really isn’t a single guy in the first round you should not draft, I chose Chase purely because he is going before Jefferson in most rankings, and I don’t think he should. I think Jefferson is better and has less competition for targets. However, they will probably finish literally right next to each other, at most a spot apart. So really, go with who you love here. Boring start to the dodges sadly.
Round 2:
Draft; Davante Adams, WR LV
Amazing what one “down” year can do to a man’s ADP! Adams is currently dropping as low as overall #17 and ranked as WR12 in most drafts. That feels like a steal, the fact you could have a top end R1 receiver like St. Brown or Chase and still end up with Adams as your WR2, it is really setting up these mid round picks for success.
The only negative to Adams is his age, which in my opinion is a non factor as he has shown no signs of slowing down. You could attribute almost his entire struggle last year to poor coaching and QB play. Still, Adams finished 2nd in Target Share, 4th in WR Targets, tied for 1st in Red Zone Targets with Lamb and finished as the WR10 on the year. His QB situation improved with O’Connell finishing the year 3-1 with no picks, developing some chemistry with Adams who had a WR2 finish in Week 17.
He’s looking at either a sophomore season for young O’Connell or journeyman Gardener Minshew as his QB, with a new OC and either situation seems ideal for fantasy production. You got Minshew who can extend plays and isn’t afraid to air it out or O’Connell who already has experience with him and could even improve on his rookie season. Adams is a must have at his ADP.
Dodge; Marvin Harrison Jr., WR ARI
There is going to be some bias in this, as I am not someone who is a fan of taking rookies so high in the draft. Harrison Jr. looks poised to become a force in the league, perhaps even better than his father. Although the Cardinals do look to be in line for an improved year with QB Kyler Murray fully healthy, and their offensive pass game was markedly better last season when he returned. Even in ideal situations it can take a few weeks or even half the season for rookies to settle in and explode.
Ironically, I would have no hesitation to take a shot on Harrison Jr at the 2-3 turn, but the 1-2 turn is too rich for my blood. Perhaps this is another uninspired dodge like in round 1, but these are the rounds you are supposed to get your guaranteed producers, that means performing at least their ADP. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see MHJ rise to the occasion, I won’t be taking the chance. I will be drafting the proven players around him at the first turn of the draft.
Round 3
Draft; Travis Kelce, TE KC
Swifties stand up! Just kidding, in all seriousness we know how vital the TE advantage can be in fantasy. Kelce has been providing drafters with WR1 production at the TE spot for years, and was formally being drafted as high as the first round! An injury riddled year along with constant double and triple team coverage sees Kelce drop to the third round in ADP.
People like me, who have never drafted him before, are now salivating at the opportunity to score two top end players and the best TE football has had over the last couple of years! KC has more weapons this year which should open up the middle of the field for Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, and most importantly he is fresh and healthy! Don’t let age scare you, this is a guy you draft until he shows you his age, and I haven’t seen that yet!
Dodge; DJ Moore, WR CHI
Man this is the third dodge in a row that, quite frankly I just don’t really believe. I have to pick someone though, so why not DJ Moore, who is on a team that has historically been bad under coach Matt Eberflus, who now has a rookie QB, an improved RB room and more mouths to feed around him including one Keenan Allen who is a fantasy monster! Even typing this out I feel ridiculous, Williams is a generational prospect and their new OC is a “big play” minded coach. He will probably be fine, but the Bears are cursed, right? So maybe he won’t.
Round 4
Draft; DK Metcalf, WR SEA
Another guy who is making the Zero RB strategy look oh so good this season. DK has had a couple “step back” years these past two seasons, unable to replicate his fantasy production of the 2 years prior. He still finished WR19 with the lowest number of targets he has seen besides his rookie season. Do not expect that target drop off to continue this year. Expect the older Tyler Lockett to take a step back to the younger JSN, while Metcalf continues to be the runaway WR1 in that Seattle offense.
Geno maybe didn’t look as flashy as he did in 2022, but he is still a baller that can hit his marks. He finished 4th last year in Deep Ball Accuracy Rating, 9th in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 11th in Pressured Catchable Pass Rate and 7th in Pressured Completion Percentage. DK is an iron man and a red zone threat, tied for 5th in red zone targets last season and an annual threat to score double digit touchdowns. The mid round picks could be looking at a receiving core of something like St. Brown, Davante Adams and DK Metcalf. Start clearing off a spot on the shelves for your trophy now.
Dodge; Malik Nabers, WR NYG
These dodges really suck don’t they? Obviously I already made my feelings known on drafting rookies early, but Nabers is slightly different. This is actually the first dodge I’m going to tell you, unequivocally, do not draft. Nabers is a top tier prospect and anyone in a dynasty should be looking to snatch him up if they can’t get MHJ. As for re-drafts and keeper leagues, his ADP is disgusting, and I expect as training camp progresses it will lower.
There is a very consistent trend in fantasy football; bottom 5 offenses rarely produce top 24 WRs, and almost never produce top 12 WRs. The Giants may end up with the worst offense in the NFL and I am expected to draft a rookie Giants WR over Lamar Jackson, Rachaad White, DK, Devonta Smith etc? No thank you, let your leaguemates have this guy, draft him next year when hopefully NY improves their situation.
Round 5
Draft; George Pickens, WR PIT
I absolutely love Pickens this year. Last year when he didn’t have Diontae Johnson on the field with him he was the WR16 with a 27% Target Share and 50% Air yard share! He now has Russell Wilson, who is old and may be in his “McNabb on the Vikings” era, but I don’t think so. The Broncos were a mess last year, and not a single receiver on that team is even half the talent that George Pickens is yet Wilson still had scoring stats equivalent to Mahomes, even slightly edging him out on TD per game.
In the era of analytics, Pickens is a true eye test guy, watching the types of catches he can make and the separation he can create, it is no wonder he was visibly frustrated with the lack of targets last season. An Arthur Smith led offense is definitely scary, but that is why we love him in the 5th round! A perfect spot to take a chance and possibly see insane value!
Dodge; Tank Dell, WR HOU
I really like Tank Dell, but I have enough “don’t really dodge” dodges on this list. So I will stick by my guns, don’t draft Tank Dell. Props to the Houston Texans for having their entire receiving core in the first 5 rounds of ADP, that is genuinely impressive and their fans have to be excited for the season. I think though that the closer we get to the season the farther Tank Dell falls. Due to the drop off last year everyone has it in their heads that Diggs is washed, forgetting about what he was doing in the first half of last year in Buffalo.
The Bills went a different direction offensively halfway through the year and it worked, they became a better team when they stopped forcing it to Diggs and spread the ball around while also establishing a run game. Don’t expect the Texans to use Diggs as a distraction, Stroud loves to air it out and Diggs loves to catch it in traffic. Expect Houston to come out of training camp with Diggs as the WR1, seeing most of the targets and Tank in the slot where he will mostly be a deep ball threat, which can provide a lot of value when his ADP inevitably falls, but between Collins and Diggs, in the 5th round he is a big do not draft.
Round 6
Draft; Christian Kirk, WR JAC
I have already written a whole article on why I love this guy, so let me just reiterate. He is finally the official WR1 on the Jags and a guy who has improved every year of his career except for one. He had 1100 yards 2 years ago and was on pace for 1200 last year at 6 rec/g.
Expect him to hit at least 1200 yards this year, with no more Calvin Ridley around him, deep ball threat Gabe Davis stretching the field and Engram only producing when Kirk was hurt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kirk hit potentially double digit targets per game and close to a 30% target share.
This is a guy i have had in the flex multiple years and always overperforms with his highest finish being a WR12, and I think he is a lock to at least get close, which even a WR16 finish would be incredible value for this round 6 choice!
Dodge; Aaron Jones, RB MIN
An aging RB with injury history on a potentially bad offense, I’m thinking Aaron Jones is a light do not draft this season. Granted he looked fantastic at the end of last year and in the playoffs, you’re looking at a team that will be playing from behind a lot with the best WR in the NFL, and age 30 is a dangerous age for RBs especially ones who have only played 1 full season.
I am not as harsh on Jones as I have been for some of the other dodges, but I will be letting my league mates take a chance on him in the 6th round, for RB here I much prefer Rhamondre Stevenson (who is also in a bad offense but I think has higher upside), De’andre Swift or TD monster David Montgomery.
Round 7
Draft; Chris Godwin, WR TB
Godwin had a rough year last year, finishing as WR36 but it was a tale of two seasons for the 28 year old. Week 13 onwards he was overall WR16, finding his stride late in the year. I am skeptical for if QB Baker Mayfield can maintain the level of play he did last year, but with Godwin looking to move back into the slot (keep in mind he had his best year of his career playing the slot; 2019: 1300 yards 9TDs) and the Bucs being a well coached sleeper team every year, do not be surprised if Godwin bounces back and far overproduces for his ADP. He feels like highway robbery in the 7th round.
Dodge; Tony Pollard, RB TEN
This should be an easy one, even for his ADP do not draft Tony Pollard. He is extremely cheap here for someone who finished RB14, but he has to battle an impressive Tyjae Spears for touches in what is looking to be a pass heavy offense. That isn’t even taking into account his abysmal red zone production, the spots where RBs are supposed to be the most reliable producers he fell severely short. Pollard was 2nd in both Red Zone Rush Attempts and Total Touches, yet he finished 24th in Red Zone TDs and 29th in FPTS/G in the Red Zone. A RBs best opportunity for points is in the red zone, and he has shown he cannot get it done. Even at this cheap price tag, avoid Tony Pollard.
Round 8
Draft; Jordan Love, QB GB
Jordan Love was a certified stud last year from week 11 onwards, it is looking like he is going to continue the Green Bay tradition of your replacement QB being just as good as the generational talent he took over for. Love threw a total of 1 interceptions last year after week 11. In that same stretch he averaged 2.3 TDs and 268 yards a game. He led in PFF passing grade during that time and only had 1 week outside the top 12 in QB finishes.
He will have to truly prove himself this season, and he is set up to do as much. GB retains the same core he saw success with last year with potentially a better run game with Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Look for Christian Watson, now healthy, to take a step forward along with teammate Jayden Reed who, like Love, looks to be a potential star in the making.
Dodge; Nick Chubb, RB CLE
I know that the upside potential is incredible here but, the type of injury matters. Chubb is a late 20s bellcow running back who tore his ACL, MCL and Meniscus. We all remember how ugly it was, and for a lot of guys that type of injury could be career ending. We all obviously hope that, on both a fantasy and human level, that this is not the case for Chubb. However, we have to look at the facts, the more ligaments damaged the less chance you have of coming back the same.
For comparison, Breece Hall had a very common ACL injury, he did also suffer a meniscus tear but it is unknown if that even required work done. Chubb is older, with many more miles, and had to get at least double the surgery done, on more than one ligament. I am not someone who likes to factor in injuries too often, but we aren’t theorizing if he will get hurt, we are talking about an injury he already sustained and what he will look like upon return. This is all before considering that he may not even be ready week 1. I’m pessimistic on Chubb this year, do not draft.
